By: Dan Fisher, Principal, IPM.ai

In the fight against COVID-19, doctors are innovating rapidly, with one focus being hydroxychloroquine sulfate, a drug approved for indications such as malaria, lupus, and rheumatoid arthritis. There is much controversy surrounding the drug’s use against COVID-19. And while there are many clinical trials underway, some medical experts have advised restraint until more data is available

With access to privacy-safe, de-identified data on the overwhelming majority of US patients, we are in a unique position to interpret reality as COVID-19 runs its course and the country responds. We have dedicated significant resources to understand the impact of the pandemic, the quarantine and the media cycle on the patient treatment journey and interactions with the healthcare ecosystem. Our insights on the big recent change in hydroxychloroquine prescribing behavior were covered by the New York Times. We offer a bit more detail about the change in prescribing behavior across geographies here.

The following analysis focuses on first-time prescriptions to patients who did not previously receive hydroxychloroquine at retail pharmacies. It excludes medicine dispensed at hospital pharmacies or from the National Stockpile.

First Quarter of 2018 vs. 2019

Historically, the volume of hydroxychloroquine prescriptions nationally has stayed quite stable, though at a granular geographical level there are meaningful variations. For example, examining prescriptions in the first quarter of 2018 vs. 2019 at the DMA level, we see variations ranging from a 90% decrease to a 700% increase.

First Quarter of 2019 vs. 2020

Despite this large variability, when we examine the data for the first quarter of 2019 vs. 2020, it becomes easy to understand that the world has radically changed.

In the 2018 vs. 2019 comparison, there is an almost even split of states where prescription volume increased and states where it fell. Examining 2019 vs. 2020, only a handful of DMAs in the Midwest witnessed a decrease in hydroxychloroquine prescriptions. All other regions increased in volume and the maximum increase was up to 14x. This shift is dominated by the change in prescription behavior during the second half of March.

Second Half of March 2019 vs 2020

Focusing on March 15-31, we see a starkly different picture with increases all across the country. New York saw a greater than 40x increase in prescriptions, Washington, DC more than 20x, Miami and West Palm Beach over 50x.

There is little doubt that the fight against COVID-19 has thrown steady-state health analytics for a loop. Pharmaceutical companies are struggling with demand forecasting in this uncertain climate, unsure where to focus their sales forces and media spend in a country locked by quarantine. In addition to helping clients with our rapid analytics capabilities, we are actively monitoring and analyzing patient and HCP behaviors across the country to understand where key commercial opportunities will appear first as the lockdown eases.

For more information, reach out to us at hello@ipm.ai or media@ipm.ai.

About the Author

Dan Fisher

Principal, IPM.ai 

As Principal for IPM.ai, Dan leads a team that utilizes machine learning, artificial intelligence and advanced analytics to deliver valuable insights that guide and accelerate the clinical and commercial decisions of life sciences companies. With a focus on specialty markets, Dan’s deep expertise in rare disease and oncology disease states helps biopharma clients better understand and more effectively uncover ideal patients and their health care providers. Prior to joining IPM.ai, Dan led commercial operations and clinical analytics projects for ZS Associates. He holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Vanderbilt University.